President Trump Tweets Bullish Stock Commentary While Dow Sees High Volatility, Cryptos Stable

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Dow Jones has seen one of its most volatile day after recovering slightly yesterday to then only shed its gains, closing down 245 points to now 24,442.

The index of some of the biggest public companies in US moved 900 points from its daily high and low, or about 4%, with it down some 10% this October from its all time high of 27,000.

Dow’s price action on daily candles, October 2018.

Trump has now intervened by quoting a bullish commentary which he tweeted out to his 55 million followers. The US President said:

“If the Fed backs off and starts talking a little more Dovish, I think we’re going to be right back to our 2,800 to 2,900 target range that we’ve had for the S&P 500.” Scott Wren, Wells Fargo.

He is blaming Fed for raising interests rates. He thinks Powell is going too fast. In these mid-term elections, however, who is to blame might be more about who can play better political football. Trump says:

“The Stock Market is up massively since the Election, but is now taking a little pause – people want to see what happens with the Midterms. If you want your Stocks to go down, I strongly suggest voting Democrat. They like the Venezuela financial model, High Taxes & Open Borders!”

Someone gotta clean the streets Trump, especially during full employement. Some of the most iconic figures are immigrants, like the Google founders, or Elon Musk, or indeed our very own Buterin, or Trump’s wife.

The stock market action, however, has nothing to do with immigrants or open borders or high taxes. Democrats are of course blaming tariffs, as is the billionaire owned corporate media which gave all our intellectual property to China for nothing in return, not even access to their market for things like Cryptos or Google.

S&P 500 on weekly candles, October 2018.

Yet maybe this has more to do with the animal spirit. Stocks have been in a bull run for the past nearly ten years even as the economy was down the trash.

Now the economy is recovering, with US in particular growing at a very healthy 4% a year, but there’s concerns over whether that will keep going.

Global stocks, October 2018.

Concerns over fed raising interest rates too fast necessarily does play into probabilities calculations. Taxes on cheap Chinese imports – without getting the concession US and the west wants: China opening its markets – may have a one sided effect as goods become more expensive while new opportunities do not open.

Trump, however, should also face his own mistakes whether imposed on him due to constraints or otherwise.

On the good side, a joke as it may sound, he should at least be considered for the Peace prize for ISIS is now defeated, we do have a slightly more peaceful world under his presidency, and the North Korea achievement courts praise.

We’ll hold our judgment on the complicated game with China. On Russia, it is Putin that needs to stop coughing as he did throughout the live conference with Trump when they met. So maybe B+ on foreign policy. Domestically…

Well, there’s no achievement. He’s cut taxes, but a baby can cut taxes. He promised to remove all the red-tape that stifles businesses. His administration instead has added tons more red tape, especially as far as the crypto space is concerned.

He wasted the first half of his term on locking up babies. His wife is right, who cares about babies (to lock them up)? The economy Trump, the economy.

There’s an easy battle the President can win to create real growth, not silly sugar rush bumps. Reform the Securities Act 1933.

He spoke about the swamp during the elections. Well the swamp is in many ways a direct cause of the discriminations contained in the Securities Act which prohibits all men and women from participating in value creation unless they are already filthy rich like the current SEC chairman Jay Clayton.

Rules of course are still needed, but not blatantly discriminatory rules that divide us by the force of law into peasants and lords.

He might be right Democrats might not do much better. They need fresh energy, they need a new generation of leaders, some millennials. Yet elections usually are not won, but lost.

This isn’t the mid-terms election. This is the people’s verdict on Trump’s first half term. Rather than just bickering with Fed, or at least in addition, he should perhaps give something to the electorate.

Like the freedom to do business, which in US now costs $20 million if you want to have a tokenized digital start-up.

That was the promise he made, and partly why many in this space backed him, but we see no implementation of it. For that he has to carry some blame and hopefully change direction to refocus on keeping his promise regarding regulations.

Crypto prices, October 2018.

Amid this turbulence in stock markets, cryptos have kind of not moved at all since mid October. The biggest event they had was a drop by a dollar or so for eth, with it kind of looking stable.

You’d expect some sort of inverse correlation because if all that money is being taken off stocks, you’d think some of it would make its way towards cryptos.

Yet cryptos tend to have a life of their own. It’s the quiet season for now after a considerable drop over the past ten months. Have they found the floor is the big question, something we probably won’t know until after the fact.


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